Potential 2011 Free Agent Targets for the Detroit Pistons

In yesterday's entry http://bit.ly/eexVCJ we looked at the potential for Joe Dumars to create between 11 and 13 million dollars in cap space by acquiring the expiring contract of Troy Murphy in exchange for Richard Hamilton.  Today I'm going to look at the projected new roster and then list a few free agent targets the Pistons may look at and give some analysis as to why that person would fit with the team for the next few years.

Supposing the Rip Hamilton trade goes through Pistons resign Jonas Jerebko but let Chris Wilcox, Tay Prince, Rodney Stuckey, Troy Murphy, and the rest of the drek loose that's set to expire at the end of this season Joe should be able to target a number of sub all-star yet starting caliber talent.  But where to add a player of consequence?  Let's look at what we'll have supposing it is Summers who is cut following the addition of Petro:

PG Will Bynum/Terrico White

SG Ben Gordon

SF Austin Daye

PF Jonas Jerebko/Charlie V/Jason Maxiell

C  Greg Monroe/Ben Wallace/Johan Petro

Ugh.  Well, Joe managed to rebuild the Pistons like I managed to rebuild the burger I ate last night by shitting it all into one toilet.  So far in 10-11 were the 7th oldest team by minutes played, so clearly something had to be done.  We need to find a starting PG, back up SG, back up SF, and a star PF.  I don't imagine we can fill more than 2 of those spots here, so let's see what's available as unrestricted free agents in order of my preference:

Nene

He'll only be 29, has missed full seasons so the wear is light, and has an out in his contract this year at 11.6 mil.  I'm presuming a deal starting at around that total would be sufficient to draw him to Detroit.  He's an incredibly high percentage scorer who is regularly found in the top 5 in FG%, a decent FT shooter, and an adequate rebounder to pair next to Greg Monroe.  He's also a block/steal per game guy who won't screw you on either side of the floor.  Not a superstar, but when healthy (did miss a couple years there, one with a knee and one with a ball cancer) he's a complete player who can go both center and power forward, and those are damn hard to find.

David West

Has a 9 million dollar option...so, yeah....he's gonna opt. out.  Pistons fans eyed him as a potential salary relief situation for NO the last time we had cap space, now we can take a full on shot.  Dude scores.  How much of that is Chris Paul giving him sweet jumpers and unguarded layins?  A bunch I'd presume.  But he shoots around 47% lifetime in games without him and actually rebounds better without Paul grabbing a bunch of loose balls so it's not as if we'd be adding a slouch.  

Zach Randolph

Big man, big numbers, big headache, big salary.  Not sure if we could lure him here at our price range, but his scoring a rebounding numbers are mind boggling.  Undoubtedly the best player on the market.  His D is awful, he has been labeled a loser and black hole, and he may be all those things, but he's the only guy we're going to talk about who can win you games on his own.  I worry about his motivation after another big deal so he's below a couple lesser talents.

Tyson Chandler

I really don't see him leaving the Mavs, but he'd allow Greg Monroe to switch to power forward and give this team some toughness.  After having a couple crap years before coming to Dallas this year, he's transformed back to a 10-10-1 guy who is shooting nearly 70% with 0 plays drawn for him.  A decent replacement for Ben, I've been tough on the guy in the past but he's a perfectly acceptable cog at only 29 years old.

Mo Williams

Not sure how much sense it makes to let Stuckey walk just to add someone 5 years older (none I guess), but he's the only remaining potential FA to catch my eye.  He may be interested if the money is right, before this year he's always been a decent 3 point shooter, and he's the only free agent I'd trust to run a team.  Mo is a heads up guy with something to prove, but I really don't think we can justify paying him enough to enough to void the 8.5 million he's owed next year.

Other guys

Carl Landry, Jamal Crawford, Troy Murphy, and Leardro Barbosa, Samuel Dalembert, and Andrei Kirilinko are all guys we can target, but god knows why we would.  Kendrick Perkins will likely stay with the Celtics.

Which brings us to the restricted players.  Thanks to the looming lockout not a lot of teams managed to put together extensions for their 3rd year players meaning guys like Rodney Stuckey are now free to shop themselves.  Joe Dumars went this route a couple years ago getting Charlie Villanueva from the Bucks when they refused to match our offer.  Not a ton of talent here, but it's young and that looks to be what Joe is heading.

Marc Gasol

I see no reason NJ MEM will let him slip away, but it's fun to imagine.  Not a stud, but he's good enough and young enough I imagine our largest offer would be matched.  Which will keep anyone from offering him, which will allow NJ MEM to sign him at a discount.  Son of a bitch.

Aaron Brooks

Blew up last year, has fallen right back this year.  Not sure how good the guy really is, he isn't the purest of points and but for his 3 point shooting isn't all that much better than Stuck.  

Wilson Chandler

Not really available, Donnie Walsh was reported in multiple media sources to have said this last week; "Wilson's a restricted free agent and I'm going to sign him. He's a helluva player."  So I'm not holding out hope, and he may be a Mike D'Antoni creation anyhow.  Whatever he is he's doing it damn well getting a block and a half a game while knocking down 3s and shooting nearly 50%. 

DeAndre Jordan

Dude seems to break out 3 times a year then disappear back to the bench.  I've loved his athleticism coming out of college and he may still be "hidden" enough that he doesn't break our bank.  Biggest reason to think not is Joe passed on him for Walter Sharpe despite me screaming at my TV and posting the hell out of my desire for the man at We Roll Hard.

Thad Young

Has developed slowly and may be redundant with Daye but I still like his talents and he could be had for cheap.  A tweener, I like him at the 3 for scoring and improving rebounding, but with Jerebko back I'm not too sure we can use him.

Thoughts?  Other dudes your thinking of?  Jason Richardson, T Mac, Greg Oden?  Yi Jianlain fans out there in China?  Leave comments in the comments and I'll comment on your comments.

Cap ramifications for the Hamilton to New Jersey deal

On its surface the exchange of Richard Hamilton for Troy Murphy and Johan Petro is about realigning the Pistons roster, shipping out the unhappy Hamilton, and making the team more financially attractive to potential buyer Tom Gores.  But the real impetus for Joe Dumars to make a move lies in the 28 million dollars in expiring contacts he'll have come due this off season.  While fans have been clamoring for the Pistons to peddle Tay Prince's deal in exchange for a long term talent, it now seems more likely that Dumars will be looking to dip his toe back into the free agent waters that 2 years ago produced disappointing additions Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.  Let's take a look at just how much the GM will have available to spend according to current practice.

2010-11s cap was set at approximately 58 million dollars.  The CBA is going to have major changes.  It may mean the cap number comes down convincingly (this would surprise me in year 1 since Stern wants no part in punishing the teams which have been fiscally conservative), it may mean the salaries of players already on this roster are headed down.  But if Larry Coon isn't willing to take a stab at what will come of next year than neither am I.  Instead I will assume that teams with cap space this year are entitled to use that space, and that the cap will land in nearly the same spot.


Next year the Pistons are committed to nearly 48 million in salary.  Sans Rip the total comes closer to 35 in locked in dollars.  I'll presume Jonas and Stuck both require cap holds if we keep them around. 5 million for Jonas (MLE for early bird or less if he signs for that) total pulling Detroit into the 40 million dollar range.  Stuck is a different story, we have to take his last salary and multiply it by 300%.  That makes him close to 10 million dollars as a hold.  We'll let Summers walk for purposes of this discussion, and add on an additional 3 million for our own 1st round pick next year, and we total 53 million with only 11 roster spots accounted. If we do in fact get a 1st round pick from the Nets in this deal that salary will have to be factored in.  Better pick, higher salary.  I'll suppose any pick for next season will be heavily protected, so lets price it at just over a million dollars.  Now, if we add Petro in this deal we'll factor in his salary as 2.5 million for next year. If not we only need to meet the requirement of 12 players, which means 500K rookie minimum (please keep in mind this hold will be released whenever the Pistons sign a player not already using one of the above slots).  So, to play it safe, we're going to the free agent dance with 57 million maximum locked into 12 players and 2 first round picks.  Again, that's with both Petro and the pick from the Nets being a late 1st next year, so no need for the hold.



This leaves us with 2 serious questions however, what to do with the contracts of Jonas and Stuckey.  Jonas should resign with us for less than the MLE, let's figure a deal similair to the one Will Bynum received this off season.  3 million to start which reserves another 2 million for Joe to play with with his cap hold removed.  Stuck is another question altogether, but to make this fun I'm going to say we let him go and his 10 million dollar 4th year Early Bird hold along with it.  That means a set salary of 47 million dollars and approximately 11 million to spend on a first year deal for a free agent in a "worst case" scenario.  A future pick or escaping from Petro means additional dollars.

Check in tomorrow and I'll breeze through the 2011 free agent options, talk about the glut of restricted free agents, and get high while I share a really cheap and easy seafood enchilada recipe.

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